First,
The key point to note, is going to be all the nay sayers in stating, "anyone could have predicted the direction Apple was going to travel with product releases". My response, yes and no. Anyone could have, but did not with such specificity (it's a word). I am referring to the previous article I put together back in Nov. 2007 analyzing Apple's trends to accurately predict what is coming next. The industry's forecasting method as to the release of Apple's products has always been, what is going on in the industry, "ah, this must be what Apple is coming out with, Apple would be stupid not to release this type of product". Wrong.
Apple has been successful, because they do not follow the industry expectations. Perfect example, the iPhone. Enough said. They follow their own agenda, and develop products that they want, and what consumers do not know they want yet. If companies developed products that consumers told them to develop, each and every one of these companies would sink, and have. Why? because consumers are not experts. They are not experts in future technology as well as what is capable next. The best proof would be to look at Mac forums when the first iPod was released. The complaining and bitter attitude towards this new product was overwhelming. But, Steve Jobs held strong that he new this would be a hit and ignored consumers initial reactions. Low and behold, we all know what happened after. Steve Jobs is an expert. He knows what should come next due to previous products. He is on a timeline of product releases. Once people are smart enough to figure this out, we will have a solid idea of what every release will be without a single rumor needed (excluding Apple's side projects of course, but even those are very predictable, i.e. AppleTV) . Just think like an Apple employee. What would an Apple employee be working on next? The main question to reveal these truths, is Why are these Apple employees working on these products next?
Past,
The previous article I put together has been obviously spot on with the rumors today, in that Apple will be releasing a tablet form factor machine using their multi-touch technology. The funny thing is, everyone now will be saying, well duh, we all knew that. But, remember, this was predicted in Nov. of 2007 extremely accurately in regards to how they will be releasing this product and on what level. This announcement of more in depth multi-touch patents were released today to the public and submitted in April of this year. So, I will bask in the glory of proving that if you think about how Apple is thinking, you will come up with their next releases. Case in point.
Now that we have established that this model works in predicting what Apple will release due to their previous technology, and NOT what the industry experts are hoping Apple releases, we can divulge a bit more information because, well, information has been released recently, so we can narrow down our broad predictions to something a bit more specific, as well as hopefully reveal a new timeline, which is what everyone would love to know.
Now,
The next major forthcoming release is Snow Leopard. In my personal opinion, Snow Leopard is being released for two reasons.
1) This will keep Apple on their usual schedule of releasing a new operating system every 2 years.
2) This delays Apple's next major release to 4 years (2 years after snow leopard)
- This gives Apple much needed time to develop the next generation computing.
- This gives Apple the ability to remove clutter and better develop the OS to prepare for a more proper use of the CPUs.
Apple's computer processor direction they are heading is geared towards multiple cores and the proper use of these cores, we all know this. Snow Leopard is fine tuning the OS to these cores for a short term roll out. On Apple's next release, this is when multi-touch can be implemented in full force because by now, they understand how to use these cores effectively. This is important because the amount of processing power needed for multi-touch to work seamlessly, this is the key word, is to have a great deal of computing power.
We all have seen multi-touch coming in the distance, we just have never known when. The biggest challenge in rolling out multi-touch technology to consumers and having the processors to power this technology. Right now, we do not have enough. Apple is prepping their operating system for this release, so they are ready for a seamless deployment. Why add new features in January if you are just going to replace them with an entirely new way to use the operating system. This will be the next step in the consumer computing revolution, and it will be huge. How huge? Um, really, really.
Apple would like you to believe that they are just fine tuning their operating system now so it can utilize the cores more efficiently. But you really need to ask yourself, why are they doing this? So we can access the calculator application faster, NO! Because this is preparation for the next major change in computer operating systems. Releases such as this take major steps to prepare for an effective and simple release. Apple has a habit of sneaking products under our nose without us realizing it.
The perfect way to look at Apple, is to compare them to a magician. How does magic work. The magician tricks their audience into focusing very hard on an object or event, and then all of a sudden something happens at the opposite side of the stage or room that you would have never guessed they were doing. But, if you look around and try to figure out what is going on when everyone is focused on the distracting piece, you will see what is going on behind the scenes, and you will not be surprised, but you saw what was coming. Apple is the same way. Am I wrong, NO.
To end this brief article as to how you can predict what Apple is releasing by watching their activity and trends, Apple is a magician. When you focus all of your attention on Apple's right hand, you miss what is going on in their left. Write that down.
Adam
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Analyzing Apple's Trends to Predict their Future
This is a mix of an open letter to Apple, as well as a prediction as to their future products based on either trends or hopes.
I have been thinking a bit about how Apple has been creating their products, and trying to decipher the Apple "code" as to what they will release next. The hardest part to predict is always the time frame. Apple likes to have the product 100% perfect by the time it is released to ensure the released products keep to Apple's high standards of excellence. So, this could mean that predictions are months away, all the way to 3 years away...unfortunately.
If you look back at Apple's trends, how have they been releasing products? If you look closely, they have a strong tendency to implement existing technology and advancements into their new releases; just in a way that we all didn't see coming. So when the product is released, we are left thinking, ohhhhh...that's a great idea. How did we miss that.
For example, many of the technologies that were released in the iPhone, we all knew about anyway. The perfect example, CoverFlow. This software was released into iTunes months before the iPhone's release. When CoverFlow was released for the iPhone, we were in awe and amazement as to how they actually implemented the software, because, well, it was a huge step forward, but one that we should have seen coming.
There are countless amounts of comparisons and examples dating back in the hardware side of things, so I'm going to try and focus mainly on software, because this is where I see most potential for amazing products.
The shining star of examples is iTunes. The individuals in charge of the design and implementation of the software should be given a great deal of credit for previous OS builds, as well as Apple's newest cat, Leopard. If you look closely, we should have been able to put together Leopard's Finder window in photoshop way before the release of the OS. iTunes paved the way for Leopard's finder. The layout is identical to that of iTunes.
It appears to me that Apple tends to test their new advancements in technology with smaller products before they release them onto a larger stage. Example, iTunes CoverFlow::iPhone::Finder. Or, iTunes Search::Spotlight. I believe this is Apple's thought process in regards to their upcoming releases.
So, what does this mean in regards for future Apple releases. Look around, take technologies that we believe are advanced, and apply them into a larger venue; which brings me to my predictions; also, now that you know how I came to these conclusions, they should make a bit more sense.
I believe that if Apple is going to keep traveling down the exact same road of success that they have been on, we "should" see iPhone-esque computers in the near future...depending on how long Apple has been developing them. Which again, brings me back to a time-frame. It is much too difficult to predict, but they should be already in development, It is just a matter of when. My guess, it will arrive with OS X 10.6. It is just such a huge step to take in a short period of time.
How will this all work? This part is a bit tricky, but there can be a solution. I believe that the upcoming iMacs and newly updated displays are the products that will see the focus of these changes. The displays out are to their limits in how they can really make them stand out more. Yes you could make the edges a bit thinner, and make them more HD, but this is not what Apple has done in the past. When they change a product, they don't do it with minor adjustments. This is why they wait so long to release products, it is so minor adjustments won't be needed. The product is already perfect. Apple makes ground breaking changes to their product lines when changes are made. Now that you have this understanding, it should be easy to predict that Apple's new displays and iMacs will be converted into full-blown touch screens, much like the iPhone (aka, the smaller product to test how this technology will work with consumers).
The first step could be into the desktop arena to test this application of technology, then it may be retrofitted for their laptops in the future. Again, there is no telling when this change will happen, but it IS going to happen with almost no doubt in my mind. Apple, Inc. is much more intelligent of a company in regards to their product pipeline than many of us, as well as investors give credit to.
How it actually will fit into the operating system is the hard part. I feel that due to the fact that a finger varies in size from person to person, the option for a full touch interface may be out of the question, but don't hold me to that, Apple is desperately trying for seamless operability with the iPhone, so who knows what they will think of. I feel that a dual (touch and mouse/keyboard) interface will be in the works as the most applicable solution. Also, the option to enable/disable the touch factor may be available. iTunes is setting itself up for this technology already, with scrolling and CoverFlow already growing on each user, using hands gestures is a matter of putting it into the software and applying a touch screen...boom (I had to). I'll go in to detail for a quick second as to how I believe the gestures will work, but this is not that important of an issue to look at right now.
First; scrolling in iTunes, exactly as the iPhone. Imagine being able to scroll through your entire iTunes library with your finger. It will be much easier to find what your looking for, and to play with in general.
Second; scrolling with CoverFlow. The technology is already built in, now we wait for implementation of gestures.
Third; Spaces (One of the most exciting). The implementation of Spaces in Leopard gives Apple a great opportunity for future development. This could be a feature that most users ignore or discard as not that ground breaking, but combine this with a swipe across your screen and you now have a new space, you get ground breaking. My guess is, it will take 4 fingers to switch screens.
Fourth: Dragging; This would be an issue that would cause Apple to scratch its head. There are many routes one could take, but I would think, the best would be the pressure sensitive display that we already know Apple is working on, as implied by their patents. Just put a bit more pressure onto an area on your screen, and the file automatically sticks and you can now move it around the screen. A simple solution to a complex problem.
Fifth; Application potential. Apple's new Core Animation is paving the way for this advancement. Everything is going to be automated and done for you, that you will no longer have to do the little things any more. Which makes it easier for your hands to control the interface. The application potential is through the roof. On the consumer end and professional. To look at the best view as to what this could do for applications, look at Delicious Library. Who knows, maybe iTunes will in turn look exactly like DL, or DL will become a way for you to play your files, rather than just look at them. I am not a developer for either company so I have no idea what they are thinking.
Sixth: Productivity. Apple is all about being more productive and automating the difficult tasks for you. Imagine how fast you will be able to operate your machine using your hands directly. This will be one of the largest selling points for their computers.
I could go on and on with the potential of this type of implementation of technology. The ideas could be endless.
What does this mean for Apple...everything. It doesn't appear that any other company is attempting to combat this technology on the consumer end yet. Microsoft's surface is in the works, but is no where near applicable to everyday consumers. Looking at the trends, this appears to be a technology that is going to be released by Apple, it is just a matter of when. Financially what does this mean...invest in Apple now. We have only seen a grain on the tip of the iceberg with this company. The future is looking immensely bright. Apple has the potential to be one of those companies that if you invest a little now, 50 years down the road, you will be sitting pretty. It amazes me that most people do not see this potential within Apple. Everyone is looking at now and what is happening right this second, as if a faulty monitor or screens that accidentally get scratched is going to bring the demise of Apple, Inc. Apple is in its baby stage (which is hard to believe for some) and is maturing year over year over year. Their future plans are much larger than we potentially believe. My advice to you, invest what you can now, and forget about it. Leave for your retirement fund because it will pay off more than you will think.
I have been thinking a bit about how Apple has been creating their products, and trying to decipher the Apple "code" as to what they will release next. The hardest part to predict is always the time frame. Apple likes to have the product 100% perfect by the time it is released to ensure the released products keep to Apple's high standards of excellence. So, this could mean that predictions are months away, all the way to 3 years away...unfortunately.
If you look back at Apple's trends, how have they been releasing products? If you look closely, they have a strong tendency to implement existing technology and advancements into their new releases; just in a way that we all didn't see coming. So when the product is released, we are left thinking, ohhhhh...that's a great idea. How did we miss that.
For example, many of the technologies that were released in the iPhone, we all knew about anyway. The perfect example, CoverFlow. This software was released into iTunes months before the iPhone's release. When CoverFlow was released for the iPhone, we were in awe and amazement as to how they actually implemented the software, because, well, it was a huge step forward, but one that we should have seen coming.
There are countless amounts of comparisons and examples dating back in the hardware side of things, so I'm going to try and focus mainly on software, because this is where I see most potential for amazing products.
The shining star of examples is iTunes. The individuals in charge of the design and implementation of the software should be given a great deal of credit for previous OS builds, as well as Apple's newest cat, Leopard. If you look closely, we should have been able to put together Leopard's Finder window in photoshop way before the release of the OS. iTunes paved the way for Leopard's finder. The layout is identical to that of iTunes.
It appears to me that Apple tends to test their new advancements in technology with smaller products before they release them onto a larger stage. Example, iTunes CoverFlow::iPhone::Finder. Or, iTunes Search::Spotlight. I believe this is Apple's thought process in regards to their upcoming releases.
So, what does this mean in regards for future Apple releases. Look around, take technologies that we believe are advanced, and apply them into a larger venue; which brings me to my predictions; also, now that you know how I came to these conclusions, they should make a bit more sense.
I believe that if Apple is going to keep traveling down the exact same road of success that they have been on, we "should" see iPhone-esque computers in the near future...depending on how long Apple has been developing them. Which again, brings me back to a time-frame. It is much too difficult to predict, but they should be already in development, It is just a matter of when. My guess, it will arrive with OS X 10.6. It is just such a huge step to take in a short period of time.
How will this all work? This part is a bit tricky, but there can be a solution. I believe that the upcoming iMacs and newly updated displays are the products that will see the focus of these changes. The displays out are to their limits in how they can really make them stand out more. Yes you could make the edges a bit thinner, and make them more HD, but this is not what Apple has done in the past. When they change a product, they don't do it with minor adjustments. This is why they wait so long to release products, it is so minor adjustments won't be needed. The product is already perfect. Apple makes ground breaking changes to their product lines when changes are made. Now that you have this understanding, it should be easy to predict that Apple's new displays and iMacs will be converted into full-blown touch screens, much like the iPhone (aka, the smaller product to test how this technology will work with consumers).
The first step could be into the desktop arena to test this application of technology, then it may be retrofitted for their laptops in the future. Again, there is no telling when this change will happen, but it IS going to happen with almost no doubt in my mind. Apple, Inc. is much more intelligent of a company in regards to their product pipeline than many of us, as well as investors give credit to.
How it actually will fit into the operating system is the hard part. I feel that due to the fact that a finger varies in size from person to person, the option for a full touch interface may be out of the question, but don't hold me to that, Apple is desperately trying for seamless operability with the iPhone, so who knows what they will think of. I feel that a dual (touch and mouse/keyboard) interface will be in the works as the most applicable solution. Also, the option to enable/disable the touch factor may be available. iTunes is setting itself up for this technology already, with scrolling and CoverFlow already growing on each user, using hands gestures is a matter of putting it into the software and applying a touch screen...boom (I had to). I'll go in to detail for a quick second as to how I believe the gestures will work, but this is not that important of an issue to look at right now.
First; scrolling in iTunes, exactly as the iPhone. Imagine being able to scroll through your entire iTunes library with your finger. It will be much easier to find what your looking for, and to play with in general.
Second; scrolling with CoverFlow. The technology is already built in, now we wait for implementation of gestures.
Third; Spaces (One of the most exciting). The implementation of Spaces in Leopard gives Apple a great opportunity for future development. This could be a feature that most users ignore or discard as not that ground breaking, but combine this with a swipe across your screen and you now have a new space, you get ground breaking. My guess is, it will take 4 fingers to switch screens.
Fourth: Dragging; This would be an issue that would cause Apple to scratch its head. There are many routes one could take, but I would think, the best would be the pressure sensitive display that we already know Apple is working on, as implied by their patents. Just put a bit more pressure onto an area on your screen, and the file automatically sticks and you can now move it around the screen. A simple solution to a complex problem.
Fifth; Application potential. Apple's new Core Animation is paving the way for this advancement. Everything is going to be automated and done for you, that you will no longer have to do the little things any more. Which makes it easier for your hands to control the interface. The application potential is through the roof. On the consumer end and professional. To look at the best view as to what this could do for applications, look at Delicious Library. Who knows, maybe iTunes will in turn look exactly like DL, or DL will become a way for you to play your files, rather than just look at them. I am not a developer for either company so I have no idea what they are thinking.
Sixth: Productivity. Apple is all about being more productive and automating the difficult tasks for you. Imagine how fast you will be able to operate your machine using your hands directly. This will be one of the largest selling points for their computers.
I could go on and on with the potential of this type of implementation of technology. The ideas could be endless.
What does this mean for Apple...everything. It doesn't appear that any other company is attempting to combat this technology on the consumer end yet. Microsoft's surface is in the works, but is no where near applicable to everyday consumers. Looking at the trends, this appears to be a technology that is going to be released by Apple, it is just a matter of when. Financially what does this mean...invest in Apple now. We have only seen a grain on the tip of the iceberg with this company. The future is looking immensely bright. Apple has the potential to be one of those companies that if you invest a little now, 50 years down the road, you will be sitting pretty. It amazes me that most people do not see this potential within Apple. Everyone is looking at now and what is happening right this second, as if a faulty monitor or screens that accidentally get scratched is going to bring the demise of Apple, Inc. Apple is in its baby stage (which is hard to believe for some) and is maturing year over year over year. Their future plans are much larger than we potentially believe. My advice to you, invest what you can now, and forget about it. Leave for your retirement fund because it will pay off more than you will think.
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
Time Quitting Applications
The purpose of this project was to run handbrake and encode video from a dvd, and when it was complete, the program would quit and appear as if it was never open.
Step 1: Create an iCal event at the time you want, in my example I will use handbrake, handbrake to quit. Let's choose 3:00pm. Create a new event for 3:00pm and label it whatever you would like. Under URL, I used a fake URL and put in http://www.qwer.com. This will distinguish this event from others if you use iCal frequently.
Step 2: Download the automator action "quit application 1.0" from this website: http://files.macscripter.net/Automator/Finder-System/quit%20application.zip
Step 3: Load this automator action into Automator in Mac OS X and begin a workflow.
Step 4*: The first action will be an iCal item entitled, "Filter iCal items". Under "Filter" select Events, and under "Whose" select URL, and in the blank space enter the exact URL you entered for the event earlier.
Step 5*: The next action to put in your workflow will be also in iCal labeled "Delete iCal Events". As it states, this will delete the iCal event you created.
Step 6: The next action will be in Finder labeled "Quit Application". This is the action you just loaded into the app. Under the drop down box, select the program you wish to quit, in my example it would be handbrake. Under "Save changes", select NO.
Step 7*: You will then select "quit application" again underneath the one you just put in. This time in the drop down box, select iCal. Under "Save changes", it doesn't matter if you select YES or NO.
Step 8: In Automator, select "File" then "Save As", enter the name you would like, but instead of saving it as a workflow, it will be saved as an application. You can put in anywhere you like as long as you know where it is.
Step 9: Go back into iCal to the event you created with the URL, and under "alarm", select "Open File". In the drop down section right below where it says "Open File" change this to "other and locate this application from Automator you created. Set the alarm for something like 1 min before and it will open this file 1 min before the time the event is scheduled.
Step 10: You are done, leave iCal open and the other application, in this example Handbrake, and everything will be quitted out of and the event you created will never appear to exist. Enjoy!
*You don't need to do these steps if you don't want to. It just removes everything to appear as if this process was never created.
Step 1: Create an iCal event at the time you want, in my example I will use handbrake, handbrake to quit. Let's choose 3:00pm. Create a new event for 3:00pm and label it whatever you would like. Under URL, I used a fake URL and put in http://www.qwer.com. This will distinguish this event from others if you use iCal frequently.
Step 2: Download the automator action "quit application 1.0" from this website: http://files.macscripter.net/Automator/Finder-System/quit%20application.zip
Step 3: Load this automator action into Automator in Mac OS X and begin a workflow.
Step 4*: The first action will be an iCal item entitled, "Filter iCal items". Under "Filter" select Events, and under "Whose" select URL, and in the blank space enter the exact URL you entered for the event earlier.
Step 5*: The next action to put in your workflow will be also in iCal labeled "Delete iCal Events". As it states, this will delete the iCal event you created.
Step 6: The next action will be in Finder labeled "Quit Application". This is the action you just loaded into the app. Under the drop down box, select the program you wish to quit, in my example it would be handbrake. Under "Save changes", select NO.
Step 7*: You will then select "quit application" again underneath the one you just put in. This time in the drop down box, select iCal. Under "Save changes", it doesn't matter if you select YES or NO.
Step 8: In Automator, select "File" then "Save As", enter the name you would like, but instead of saving it as a workflow, it will be saved as an application. You can put in anywhere you like as long as you know where it is.
Step 9: Go back into iCal to the event you created with the URL, and under "alarm", select "Open File". In the drop down section right below where it says "Open File" change this to "other and locate this application from Automator you created. Set the alarm for something like 1 min before and it will open this file 1 min before the time the event is scheduled.
Step 10: You are done, leave iCal open and the other application, in this example Handbrake, and everything will be quitted out of and the event you created will never appear to exist. Enjoy!
*You don't need to do these steps if you don't want to. It just removes everything to appear as if this process was never created.
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